Market Commentary | Oct 08, 2025
3Q2025 Market Commentary: Less Bad, Is Good
Michael J. AroestyCFP®
CFP®
“Ships will sail around the world, but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace.”
- Warren Buffett
The third quarter closed on a constructive note, with markets advancing for the fifth consecutive month. Investors were reminded of the timeless market truth: often, the absence of bad news is good enough. Despite a steady drumbeat of macro headlines—concerns over tariffs, a softening jobs market, and ongoing debates about whether valuations have run too far—the market continued to march higher. Far from ignoring reality, investors have been weighing risks against actual economic conditions, and the fundamentals look robust.
GDP growth has remained strong, underpinned by stable inflation and a remarkably resilient consumer. The unemployment rate, while no longer at ultra-low pandemic-era levels, continues to reflect a healthy labor market though undergoing some transition from immigration policy. Importantly, despite the tariff impact, price stability has allowed the Federal Reserve to maintain a more accommodative stance, reducing one of the biggest headwinds of recent years. Together, these conditions have created an environment where businesses, investors, and consumers are positioning for growth with greater confidence.
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Michael J. Aroesty
CFP®